A Little Insight On Online Sports Betting
This article summarizes research intended to optimize the use of the Kelly strategy, the most profitable of all existing betting strategies. This research is based on a comparison between the betting profit statistics of the top European football leagues that played during 2008/09 and those that played in the 2009/10 season.
Data and Methods
The research was conducted based on match results and average betting odds from 60+ bets taken from the following European Football leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
Each match result receives its own value determined by multiplication: odds x probability of winning. When this value is higher than one, it is considered a “value bet”.
The probability of home/draw/away wins in this study is determined by the frequency of their appearance in national tournaments.
According to Kelly's strategy, the bet for each outcome is calculated liga188 as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w represents the player's wealth and p is the probability of winning). For example, if your fortune is $1000, p is 50% and the odds are 2.5, then the preferred bet is $1000*(0.5 - 0.5/(2.5-1))=166$
The punter's profit is calculated by assuming he places a bet according to Kelly's strategy for the outcome whose value is closest to the bet value determined a priori.
Optimal value bets are bets that result in maximum profits for the player.
Research Summary
According to research, the optimal betting value for football betting is 1.37 (2009) compared to 1.39 (2008). The betting profits of players using the Kelly strategy with this optimal betting value were equal to 10% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The results show that when players using the Kelly strategy place bets on outcomes with an average betting value of 1.38, betting profits will be maximized. High-quality betting tips can increase profits dramatically but the optimal betting value must be recalculated to adjust it to the accuracy of your betting tips.
Website with Dynamic Links